Table 1 Posterior estimates of demographic parameters for the best models of population demography in Fig. 3 revealed by Approximate Bayesian Computation
Cluster (best model) | Parameter | NA | N1 | N1c | T1 (years) | T1 (generations) | T3 (years) | T3 (generations) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
N (scenario 2) | Mean | 4.10 × 104 | 1.03 × 106 | 3.7 × 105 | 1.47 × 105 | 1.47 × 104 | 5.20 × 105 | 5.20 × 104 |
Median | 3.89 × 104 | 1.02 × 106 | 3.45 × 105 | 1.42 × 105 | 1.42 × 104 | 5.17×  105 | 5.17×  104 | |
95% CI | 0.71–8.29 × 105 | 0.30–1.80 × 106 | 0.72–7.38 × 105 | 0.19–2.83 × 105 | 0.19–2.83 × 104 | 1.21–9.43 × 105 | 1.21–9.43 × 104 | |
S (scenario 2) | Mean | 4.19 × 104 | 2.74 × 106 | 2.28 × 105 | 7.31 × 104 | 7.31 × 103 | 4.55 × 105 | 4.55 × 104 |
Median | 3.85 × 104 | 2.64 × 106 | 2.09 × 105 | 6.90 × 104 | 6.90 × 103 | 4.16 × 105 | 4.16 × 104 | |
95% CI | 0.84–8.85 × 104 | 0.72–4.72 × 106 | 0.58–4.55 × 105 | 0.11–1.41 × 105 | 0.11–1.41 × 104 | 0.86–9.25 × 105 | 0.86–9.25 × 104 | |
A (scenario 2) | Mean | 5.81 × 104 | 3.08 × 106 | 1.01 × 106 | 1.02 × 105 | 1.02 × 104 | 6.80 × 105 | 6.80 × 104 |
Median | 5.68 × 104 | 2.92 × 106 | 0.98 × 106 | 0.99 × 105 | 0.99 × 104 | 7.20 × 105 | 7.20 × 104 | |
95% CI | 0.06–1.12 × 105 | 0.92–5.64 × 106 | 0.27–1.80 × 106 | 0.20–1.88 × 105 | 0.20–1.88 × 104 | 2.47–9.78 × 105 | 2.47–9.78 × 104 |